Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Tampa Bay Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rs actually high since double-dip recessionx are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Martgy Regalia. He predicted that the current economic downturb will end around September but that the unemployment rate will remaibn high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickl y as it usually does after a Regalia said. Inflation, however, looms as a potentia problem because of thefederal government’ds huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollarw pumped into the economy by the , he said.
If this stimuluw is not unwound once the economy begin sto recover, higher interest rates could choke off improvemen t in the housing market and business investment, he “The economy has got to be runnintg on its own by the middlew of next year,” Regalia Almost every major inflationary period in U.S. historyu was preceded by heavydebt levels, he noted. The chancees of a double-dip recession will be loweer if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairmann of theFederal Reserve, Regalia said. If Presidenft Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larry to chair the Fed, that would signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longefr time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaa administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappointg Bernanke, whose term ends in February. more than half of small businese owners expect the recession to last at least anothe rtwo years, according to a survey of Intuirt Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on theif own abilities but bearish on the factorse they can’t control,” said Cameron director of marketing for .
“Eveb in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small businesds owners by found that 57 percent thought the economy wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thoughtg the economy was improving. More than half plannedr to decrease spending on businesds development in the nextsix months. on the U.S. Chambeer of Commerce’s Web site.